The favorite rarely wins.
Barcelona secured the La Liga title three rounds before the end of the season: they just needed to avoid losing to Real Madrid, and they won 2-0.
But the Catalans were not considered favorites at the start of the season. At one point, their chances of winning the title even dropped below 30%.
After 11 matchdays, Real Madrid was seen as the heavy favorite. Barcelona took control of the race after matchday 15.
Here’s the table showing Barcelona’s now-unreachable lead.
And here’s how the title race unfolded throughout the season.
Initially, Real Madrid was given over a 50% chance of winning the title. After five rounds, the two teams swapped positions, even though Real Madrid had won all five matches and led Barcelona by a couple of points.
Three rounds later, a notable shift: the odds returned almost to their pre-season levels, with the same gap. By this time, Real Madrid had lost 2-5 to Atletico Madrid, but Barcelona had also suffered a 1-4 defeat in Seville.
After the 10th round, Real Madrid’s chances soared following their El Clásico victory over Barcelona: they moved to 1.45 odds compared to Barcelona’s 2.95. And after the 11th round, with a five-point lead, Real Madrid had the highest probability of winning the title all season: over 70%!
But then Barcelona went on a nine-match winning streak, while Real Madrid managed just two wins in six games. So Barcelona’s five-point deficit turned into a one-point lead, and their chances rose to 60%.
From that point on, Real Madrid only became the favorite once: after the 24th round, when Barcelona lost to Girona and fell two points behind their rival. But in the next match, Madrid themselves lost to Osasuna, and then to Getafe. That’s why the odds shifted so dramatically: Barcelona went up by four points.
And Barcelona confidently marched toward the title, while Real Madrid suffered more and more from internal chaos.
**The Favorite Has Won Only 5 Times in the Last 16 Seasons: Barcelona Takes the Title as an Underdog for the Second Year Running**
Despite Real Madrid and Barcelona always being the two main contenders for the La Liga title, the favorite winning is far from a given.
Here are just five highlighted cases in the last 16 seasons where the top contender actually became champion.
Barcelona proved the predictions right three times, Real Madrid twice. Barcelona missed out on the title four times when they were considered favorites; Real Madrid did so seven times.
In two cases, Atletico Madrid upset all the odds: they became champions with very low probability.
If you disregard Atletico, the most unexpected champion in the last 15 years was last season’s Barcelona: the probability of the Catalans winning the title before the season had never dropped to 20%.
It’s interesting: will Barcelona now be the favorite for the new season?
Barcelona fans are celebrating the title in Plaza de Catalunya in Barcelona – check out the video on VideoSport.
Photos: Gettyimages.ru / David Ramos